(Dan Tri) – Senior Ukrainian officers warn that the military picture is bleak and that Russian generals can achieve success wherever they decide to focus their upcoming attack.
Ukrainian soldiers at the front (Illustration photo: Skynews).
Warning from billionaire Elon Musk
Technology billionaire Elon Musk’s latest statements regarding the war in Ukraine have made many people concerned, as he warned that, although Moscow has no chance of conquering all of Ukraine, the longer the conflict lasts.
`However, if the fighting lasts long enough, Odessa will also fall,` he warned.
Previously, billionaire Musk had urged Ukraine to agree to territorial concessions and his opposition to the US $60 billion military aid package made him, at least, not a commentator loved by Ukraine.
Mr. Musk’s comments are actually not much different from the serious warnings that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky issued in the past few days.
Clearly, Mr. Zelensky’s warning was a deft step in a broad diplomatic effort to speed up approval of military aid that his forces desperately need and have been short of for months, everything from artillery shells
But the sad truth is that, even if this package is passed by the US Congress, the massive supply may not be enough to prevent a major battlefield from being turned upside down.
And such a setback, especially amid election campaigns in the US and Europe, could well revive Western pressure for negotiations that would clearly benefit Russia, so that the Kremlin
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte (left) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shake hands after signing a security agreement on March 1 (Photo: President of Ukraine).
The picture of the harsh truth
Basically, everything now depends on where Russia will decide to focus its power in the offensive expected to take place this summer.
In the flurry of activity leading up to the major offensive – stretching from Kharkov and Sumy in the north to Odessa in the south – Russian missile and drone strikes have increased sharply in recent weeks.
And according to senior Ukrainian military officers who served under General Valery Zaluzhny – Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s armed forces until he was replaced in February – the military picture is grim.
There is a great risk that the front line will collapse wherever Russian generals decide to concentrate their attacks, officers say.
They spoke on condition of anonymity to speak freely.
`Nothing can help Ukraine now because there is no real technology that can compensate Ukraine for the large number of soldiers that Russia would probably attack us with. We don’t have those technologies and the means
According to him, now only the courage and resilience of Ukraine and the mistakes of Russian commanders can change the grim situation.
For example, what happened on March 30, when Russia launched its largest tank attack since the full-scale conflict began, helping Ukraine’s 25th Brigade destroy more than 10 tanks and 8
Senior Ukrainian officials, however, remind that relying on Russia’s mistakes is not a strategy, and they are bitter about a series of missteps that they say hindered Ukraine’s resistance from the start.
They are also scathing about the West holding back, saying supplies and weapons systems arrived too late and in insufficient numbers to make the difference they could have.
`General Zaluzhny often calls it a war of opportunity,` one officer said.
The officers said shoulder-fired anti-tank missiles supplied by Britain and the US in the first weeks of the conflict arrived promptly, helping them save Kiev, and so did the HIMARS missile system, which was used.
`But often, we don’t get weapon systems at the time we need them – they just arrive when they are no longer relevant,` another senior official said, citing the F-16 fighter jet as a reference.
About a dozen F-16s are expected to enter service this summer, after completing basic pilot training.
F-16 fighter (Photo: The Local Norway).
And that’s because, according to this official, Russia is ready to fight them.
This officer explained that Russia is calculating where best to deploy the S-400 radar and missile system to maximize the firepower area they can cover to target the F-16, pushing combat
Officers also said they now need more basic conventional weapons as well as drones.
`We keep telling our Western partners that we have combat experience, we have battlefield knowledge in this conflict. (They) have enough resources and they need to provide them to us.`
For its part, Europe is trying to help Ukraine compensate for the huge disadvantage of lacking artillery shells.
The officers emphasized that they needed a lot of men, too.
However, Ukraine has not yet begun recruiting ahead of an expected increase in Russian activity, as authorities fear large-scale mobilization could have political consequences.
Then, last week, General Oleksandr Syrsky – Zaluzhny’s replacement – suddenly announced that Ukraine might not need so many new troops.
The plan was to send as many office staff and non-combatants to the front lines as possible after an intensive training course lasting three to four months.
Then, on April 2, President Zelensky signed a number of amendments and supplements to the old mobilization law, tightening legal requirements for Ukrainian men of military age to register.
`We not only have a military crisis but also a political crisis,` said one officer.
Therefore, billionaire Musk’s comment may not be too far-fetched.
